April 2021 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Marginally Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally declined but remains well into expansion.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the second or third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion year-over-year

Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged down to 153.6. The growth rate ticked down to 25.1%.

ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For a quick glance at the WLI's recent performance, please see the chart below.

The Best Way to Use the Weekly Leading Index (WLI)

Review ECRI's current real-time track record.

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U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The February economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth slowed but continued in expansion.

U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was improved but remains in contraction.

source: ECRI

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