The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index's headline number improved again in April. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March. A quote from the Conference Board: "... Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2".

Analyst Opinion of Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence had been steady for the previous two years - but the coronavirus killed the upswing. Consumer confidence during the pandemic was as low as seen in 2014 - but now has improved to nearly pre-pandemic levels.

The consensus range from Econoday was 108.0 to 115.0 (consensus 112.0). This month's index is based on data collected through 16 April 2021.

Per Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

Consumer confidence has rebounded sharply over the last two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020. Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2. Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook held steady this month. Consumers were more upbeat about their income prospects, perhaps due to the improving job market and the recent round of stimulus checks. Short-term inflation expectations held steady in April, but remain elevated. Vacation intentions posted a healthy increase, likely boosted by the accelerating vaccine rollout and further loosening of pandemic restrictions.

Caveats Relating to CB Consumer Confidence

From the Conference Board:

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen's Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services for all devices on which content — video, audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries, covering more than 90 percent of the world's population. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.

From Econoday:

The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.

Consumer confidence and retail sales generally move in tandem but not necessarily each and every month. Note that consumer assessments of employment conditions are heavily weighted in the consumer confidence index.