A Bunch Of Year-Ahead Inflation Forecasts

I’m talking about inflation expectations in my macro course, so I wanted to show what different measures predicted for the next year.

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (pink), forecast from Cleveland Fed (light green). Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersPhiladelphia FedNY Fed, and Cleveland Fed.

Interestingly, the two household based surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) are at the top, while the market/expectations based (Cleveland Fed) and economist survey based (SPF) are at the bottom. In some sense, the household survey results are not too surprising; the Michigan survey has historically been upward biased.

Keep in mind that we’re doing price level catch-up over the next year.

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.