Retired Hedge Fund Portfolio Manager
Contributor's Links: The Commodity Strategist

I am a professional trader with over 30 years experience. I have invested in commodities for over thirty years, and have seen several cycles. For the past decade I have mostly been out. Why? Because the prices were too high to go long. I did take some small short positions, but I am always wary ... more

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Uber
The company has off-balance-sheet assets that would be valuable even in a bankruptcy.
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Update On Tesla Bonds
The technology of electric cars will continue to advance over the next five years or so. Eventually they will become a stable technology, and costs and marketing will take over. By then Tesla will be hard to unseat.
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Cobalt
My last post put Cobalt into a general value area. Now let's look at the supply/demand.
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More On Battery Metals
The bull argument was that increased demand from electric cars and grid storage systems would raise demand for all these metals to a new plateau. There is actually some truth to the argument.
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The Bust In Battery Metals
When markets go into bubble mode, the bust is often worse than you thought possible. Often, the reason is that during the bubble, speculative stocks of the commodity get built up.
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China Deal Off? What Comes Next.
There's still a chance that a deal can be reached. But if not, here's what I see will happen.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Regression To Trend: Another Look At Long-Term Market Performance - Tuesday, Oct. 2
2 years ago

Look, if you draw a trendline using all the data in the series, it's always going to look like a good fit. Trouble is, it tells you nothing about predictive ability. Suppose you were in 1945, the halfway point in your series. You could have drawn a pretty good trendline up till then. But it would have missed the second half of the series completely.

Be A Pig And Make It Big In Commodities
4 years ago

Interesting that Southern Copper / Grupo Mex (same owners) are the only ones increasing capex. Shows the power of being the low cost producer.

In this article: SCCO, FXC, TCK, VALE, TC, CEIX
1 to 2 of 2 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AA Alcoa Inc.
CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
CQP Cheniere Energy Partners, LP
DF Dean Foods Company
GM General Motors Company
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GSBD Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.
JJC iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN
LMNR Limoneira Co.
LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc
SCCO Southern Copper Corporation
SLV iShares Silver Trust
TINY Harris & Harris Group Inc.
UAN CVR Partners LP
USO United States Oil Fund, LP
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The big news yesterday was Tesla's announcement that they have perfected self-driving enough to introduce it at the end of this year. If true, this is a revolutionary time frame.

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The Commodity Strategist
Burton Rothberg
Burton Rothberg

I have invested in commodities for over thirty years, and have seen several cycles. For the past decade I have mostly been out. Why? Because the prices were too high to go long. I did take some small short positions, but I am always wary of the unlimited upside risk.

That time is now over. Prices of many commodities are now cheap. How and when to invest in them is the subject of  this blog.