Analyst at Ashton Consultancy Inc.
Phone: 905-468-0130

Tony is an all-round investment professional with a broad range of credentials, skills, contacts and work experience in Canada, England, the United States and Australia. His career spanning four decades has been in the investment and mining industries as a corporate director, president, ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

EC Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Worry, to the point of irrational pessimism, has been the hallmark of investors' attitudes during the entire post-Lehman decade. It is a bull market, so be really bullish.
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Fed Tolls The Bell For Gold US$2,000.
The announcement that the Fed intends to buy $60 billion of bills per month until mid-2020, certainly is QE on a massive scale. As such, the total monetary base should rise by almost half a trillion dollars to $3.76 trillion by June 30, 2020.
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U.S. Dollar Stronger For Longer
The price of gold should be around $1,900 per ounce but U.S. dollar strength remains as U.S. QT continues apace. Aside from reactions to geopolitical shocks, the dollar's strength could keep the gold subdued until excess bank reserves are eliminated.
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DIA - A Screaming Buy
The DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA ETF, should be bought now. It is not about to collapse as many bears are expecting.
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US Dollar To Rain On Gold’s Parade
The USA is engaged in QT while most other countries are still easing. This points to a stronger U.S. dollar. Unfortunately, the strong U.S. dollar should keep the U.S. price of gold subdued for some time. Gold shares are only for patient Investors.
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Dow Dividend Rising Significantly
Earnings and dividends have risen over the past year to records. However, dividend increases are lagging earnings. The dividend payout ratio is only 37%, historically low, At a 50% pay-out, the DDV value would be 60,000.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Predicted Acceleration In DJIA Rise To Continue
1 year ago

Dear Danny,

The DJIA dividend is published every week in Barron's market Lab.

www.barrons.com/.../9_0210-indexespeyields.html

In this article: DIA, TYX
The Economy: Mostly Good
1 year ago

Dear David,

The two vectors that impact the value of the DJIA are dividends and 30 year T Bond Yiel

Re-balancing is slowing the rise of DJIA Price but Santa should help

Please see :-

www.talkmarkets.com/.../at-24329-price-of-djia-at-44--discount-to-value-of-43533

Regards

Tony

At 24,329 Price Of DJIA At 44 % Discount To Value Of 43,533
1 year ago

Dear Readers,

This was published at 2.38 pm this afternoon. It is now 6.05 pm and no one has commented one way or another on the contents. I am looking for positive and negative criticism. Surely some one out there has questions.

Since May 5 2014 I have published 29 articles and had only 4 comments, which is most disheartening. TalkMarkets should be a sounding board for the exchange of ideas but this seems to me to be just a one way street of good research which I have made available free to all. It would be nice to here from you in return.

Should you think that my efforts are just BS then let me know but I would like to hear supporting arguments if that is your opinion.

Kind regards

DJIA Driven By Fundamentals, Not White House Twitter
2 years ago

You should start with a book by the master of value investing Ben Graham and see how you go,

www.chapters.indigo.ca/.../9780060555665-item.html

I am sure that it is available elsewhere, The paper back edition is available for $20,

Kind regards

Tony

In this article: TYX, DIA, GLD
S&P 500 Facing A Correction
3 years ago

Dear Gregor,

Nonsense, and here is why:

www.talkmarkets.com/.../while-declared-dead-djii-just-wont-stay-down

JNJ is at least a double.

Kind regards

Tony Hayes

In this article: SPX
Are Stocks Ready To Rocket Higher?
3 years ago

Dear Chris

Yes bonds have been outperforming equities because world bond rates have been sinking to negative levels. Absolute madness and the start of the modern day Tulip Mania and the South Sea Bubble.

Real assets have been rising because some folk are recognising that the new paradigm of taking money from the lender to pay the borrower is nonsense. Gold is telling you this as are equities. There is just too much money sloshing around the world and not enough places to put invest it.

I suggest you read the following along with the comments and my answers.

www.talkmarkets.com/.../while-declared-dead-djii-just-wont-stay-down

I see that Peter Schiff is horning in on your website. Too bad for him that the world does not work as he would like it too with the Austrian School of wannabe economics that have made him a legend in his own mind.

Kind regards

Tony Hayes

In this video: ACWI, QQQ, AGG, IYT, RSP, SLV, SPY, TLT, XHB, XLB, XLE, XOP, SPX, NYA
Things Are Different Post Lehman, Even If They Shouldn't Be
3 years ago

Dear Gary,

If the banks will do nothing but sit on their $ 2.5 trillion of excess reserves then long rates will fall further pushing up the dividend discount value of the DJII. At some point the banks will have to move either into the real economy or into the equity market.

For more thoughts on this please visit:

http://tonyhayesblog.com/

Kind regards

Tony

In this article: DJI
A Tale Of Two Crashes
3 years ago

Dear Jeff,

I think that you should look at the amount of the monetary base that is actually at work in the US economy and not the total monetary base. US$2,3 trillion is stashed as excess reserves at the Fed. Thus while hyperinflation may be coming it is unlikely to be soon.

perhaps you would like to read the following and give me a ring.

www.talkmarkets.com/.../negative-interest-rates-are-insane

Rail Week Ending January 16, 2016: Contraction Continues
3 years ago

Can you split out oil shipments? The increase in pipeline shipments in the U.S. over the past year must surely have had an effect. Perhaps the mild weather might have reduced the demand for coal of late.

Fed Moves To Quantitative Contraction, QC Did Anyone Notice?
3 years ago

It certainly looks like it. The next Fed report on the monetary base will be released at 4.30 pm today

In this article: FXE, TYX, DJI
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Ashton Consultancy Inc.
2010 - Present (10 years)

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