Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

The “Deal”: Much Ado About Nothing
No matter what measure you use, China’s imports from the US had stalled after 2012 (well before Trump’s trade war).
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On The Eve Of “The Deal – Phase 1” Signing
Currency manipulation or not? The Treasury’s semiannual foreign-exchange report, released yesterday, says no, contra Mr. Trump’s statement a few months ago.
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Is Employment Growth (A Lot) Lower Than We Think?
Yesterday’s employment release indicated a deceleration in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth. Data from other sources suggests that the deceleration over the last year is more marked than indicated by the establishment survey.
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Business Cycle Indicators, End-2019
Industrial production remains nearly a percentage point below December 2018 levels, while manufacturing and trade sales are even with January 2019 levels. The other indicators’ growth rates have decelerated.
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Dispatches From The Trade Wars
What is the Net impact on employment from Trump’s trade war?
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Pictures From The Steel Trade War
Raw steel production is down, as is primary metal employment. In 2015-17, it could be argued that the strong dollar drove the decline in employment in those years.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications