Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

As Long As Trump Tweets His Way Randomly Through The Trade War, The Dollar Will Stay Strong
If Trump wants a weaker dollar and hence smaller trade deficit, he should relent on the trade threats (and last-minute backtracking).
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Some Observations On Determining Business Cycle Chronologies
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a commonplace rule of thumb for defining recessions, but the original conception of recessions is not captured by this simple definition.
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Five Observations On The Employment Release
The deceleration in employment growth is noticeable. Taken with the preliminary benchmark revision, it’s possible employment growth deceleration is even more marked.
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Estimated Probability Of Recession In August 2020 = 49%
Based on the first half of August, the probability of a recession in August 2020 was 47%.
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Prebuttal: Fiscal Policy Can Be Effective
Absent a shooting war, the economy is headed for a slowdown, even a recession. I'm confident should the administration or anybody else propose countercyclical fiscal policy, a set of the usual suspects will deny the efficacy of discretionary policy.
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Winning! August Soybean Edition
Despite Trump’s assertion the Chinese “want deal”, what some people characterize as a price “blip” continues.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P HMBLDRS IDX FND
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications