Chief Executive Officer at Industrad Limited
Contributor's Links: The Reference Files

Consulting services include:

Oil & Gas Services:
Strategic oil and gas investment advisory, reservoir/petrophysical analyses, petroleum product trade and marketing

Applied Geophysics in Geotechnical Engineering:
Integrated geophysics in pipeline ... more

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E Shale Oil Revolution: The Challenges Ahead
Production from North American tight oil formations soared over the past decade and brought significant changes to the global oil market; but it is now facing formidable headwinds.
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EC Crude Oil Prices And Current Market Dynamics
Crude oil prices have risen by more than 150% since Nov. 2016, reaching near four-year highs over the past few days. Even Saudi Arabia and Russia have been talking up a rollover of the production cuts.
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Why The Uncertainty Over Crude Oil Prices Will Endure?
24 oil-producing countries, members as well as non-members of the OPEC, met Thursday, 25 May, and voted to extend their production reduction accord by 9 months. The extension aims to rebalance the global oil market and stabilize oil prices.
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Rebalancing The Oil Market: Issues To Watch
The ruinous tussle for market share between tight oil producers in North America and OPEC, saw crude oil prices slump by more than 70% from the second quarter of 2014 to twelve-year lows in the first quarter of 2016. Prices have rebounded somewhat.
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The Internecine Duel For Oil Market Share
In 2014 OPEC adopted a laissez faire output policy which essentially removed caps on members’ supply quotas. It was a thinly-veiled attempt to drive the higher-cost (North American tight oil) producers offline and take share of the global market.
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Global Crude Oil Rebalancing And The Producers’ Accord
Crude oil prices plummeted from more than US$110 per barrel in the second quarter of 2014 to just above US$26 per barrel in the first quarter of 2016.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Peak Oil Demand Is On The Horizon
5 months ago

Well, while that may be inferred, I'm always cautious about "cyclical" processes especially as a basis for investment.

In this article: XOM, CVX, OXY, ECA, PXD
Peak Oil Demand Is On The Horizon
5 months ago

I do share a three-phase process to the decline of oil demand: an initial decline, a plateau and a final decline to a base. That said, the gradient of the first and last phases, as well as the duration of the plateau phase will be determined by factors such as policies, regulations and technology. It may therefore be a little premature to assign well-defined timelines to these.

It is however worthy of note that even OPEC in its recent World Oil Outlook report, projects growth to fall from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to about 0.5 million bpd by the end of the next decade.

In a post four days ago, I itemized the challenges facing the US tight (shale) oil industry: and those will be instrumental in shaping the future of oil.

In this article: XOM, CVX, OXY, ECA, PXD
Shale Oil Revolution: The Challenges Ahead
5 months ago

Production from both tight oil and conventional oil resources would probably not be ending any time soon. However, both face challenges going forward. For tight oil, especially shale, the days of frenzied output as seen just a few years ago, are most likely coming to an end.

In this article: USO
Crude Crashes As Saudis Signal Intolerance To OPEC 'Partners' Cheating
5 months ago

For years, OPEC was the world's "swing oil producer" in the sense that it had both high output and spare capacities and that meant that with just a turn of the spigots, oil prices would spike or fall depending on the direction of that turn. However, the massive ramp-up in US shale output has seen that country become the world's largest producer and a swing producer too.

That said, the frenzied US shale output is facing formidable headwinds (I have discussed them in a post to be published shortly) and could see a significant decline if those headwinds endure. In addition, two of the US "shale boom" pioneers recently stated that they do not expect to see those boom years again.

Why Oil Demand Won’t Follow Coal’s Death Spiral
5 months ago

With regard to "third world" countries, it is interesting to note that in what is seen as a pilot program for country and region, Rwanda, which has a German automobile (VolksWagen) assembly plant, is partnering another German energy company (Siemens) among others to develop an e-mobility platform. The assembly plant will be rolling out EVs while charging infrastructure will be provided by Siemens.

Crude Crashes As Saudis Signal Intolerance To OPEC 'Partners' Cheating
5 months ago

Well, OPEC hasn't really had its influence on the global oil market challenged to this degree. However, one factor that may work in its favor is the projection by two shale pioneers, of the decline in US tight oil output.

Crude Crashes As Saudis Signal Intolerance To OPEC 'Partners' Cheating
5 months ago

OPEC is really at "the" crossroads. In its recent World Oil Outlook report, it notes that growth in non-OPEC oil supply will exceed that in global demand by 2024. Further supply cuts by the cartel will only lead to further loss in market share in addition to revenue losses. Maintaining the status quo would probably not bring much relief.

Congress To Lift Four Decade Oil Export Ban: Will It Impact Crude Prices?
4 years ago

Energy issues in the United States legislature are very emotive and almost always divisive. This deal however will most likely be of little effect in the near term. First because in addition to arbitrage issues, U.S. crude grades will be competing with well-established ones of similar grade (e.g. Bonny Light, Qua Iboe Light which sell at premiums to international benchmark Brent). Secondly, in a low oil price regime, the U.S. producers may be unable to offer refiners the necessary price discounts to enable them come on board quickly.

1 to 8 of 8 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

APC Anadarko Petroleum Corporation
BNO UNITED STATES BRENT OIL FUND
BP BP p.l.c.
COP ConocoPhillips
EOG EOG Resources Inc.
EOGSF EMERALD OIL & GAS NL
HES Hess Corporation
MRO Marathon Oil Corporation
OIL iPath B S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN
TNX 10 Year Treasury Note
UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil
UGA United States Gasoline Fund LP
UGAZ Credit Suisse VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas Exchange Traded Notes 2012- Linked to S&P GSCI Natu
UNG United States Natural Gas Fund LP
USO United States Oil Fund, LP
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
UWTI VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN
WLL Whiting Petroleum Corporation
WTI W&T Offshore Inc.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation
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Work Experience

Education

University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada
M.Sc.
1981 / 1982
Geology (Geophysics)

Publications

Paleomagnetism of The Gunflint Iron Formation of Northwest Ontario
Dennis U. Atuanya, D.T.A. Symons, M. Stupavsky
Institutes on Lake Superior Geology

Stratigraphy; geophysics; paleomagnetism; paleomagnetic poles; metamorphism; Gunflint Formation; Animikie Group; Southern Province; Penokean Orogeny; Hudsonian Orogeny; Precambrian.

The Reference Files
Dennis U. Atuanya
Dennis U. Atuanya

The blog of energy analyst Dennis Ude Atuanya covering the energy sector (from operations to geopolitical and policy issues).