CEO of New Constructs, LLC.

New Constructs provides unrivaled insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private & public businesses. Combining human expertise with NLP/ML/AI technology (more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Don’t Let Casper’s Lower Price Fool You, It’s Still Overvalued
When Casper (CSPR) first filed for IPO, it was aiming for a valuation as high as $768 million.
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Featured Stock In January’s Exec Comp & ROIC Model Portfolio
Our Exec Comp Aligned with ROIC Model Portfolio (-0.4%) underperformed the S&P 500 (+3.3%) from December 13, 2019, through January 13, 2020.
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Three Stocks That Could Surprise During Earnings Season
Over the trailing twelve months period, LRCX had -$139 million in net earnings distortion that causes earnings to be understated.
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Technology Sector 1Q20: Best And Worst
Buying a fund without analyzing its holdings is like buying a stock without analyzing its business and finances.
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Getting Core Earnings Right
Though most investors take for granted that corporate managers fudge their earnings, there’s never been any empirical data and evidence to prove it – until now.
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Position Close Update: Kulicke And Soffa Industries
KLIC’s business was hit much harder by the recent cyclical downturn in the industry. Its net operating profit after tax declined by 88% in 2019 compared to just a 15% decline for KLAC (which acquired ORBK) and a 24% decline for LRCX.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
2 years ago

Thanks Harry Goldstein.

Understanding how far off they are from profitability today helps investors see the real risk in the stock.

In this article: NFLX
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
2 years ago

Good points - and the back and forth here illustrated the challenges Netflix has to making money. Not sure how they will ever make the kind of money they need to make to support original content creation.

Understanding how far off they are from profitability today helps investors see the real risk in the stock.

In this article: NFLX
Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough
2 years ago

They lost $2.8 billion in 2016.

Over the trailing twelve months - free cash flow is -$3.1 billion.

Wall Street loves the stock and the firm's strategy b/c it will generate lots of underwriting fees for all the debt and stock NFLX can sell to the suckers willing to fund a business model that has not made money 2010 when free cash flow was $29 million.

Since 2002, free cash flows is -$9.4 billion, cumulatively.

In this article: NFLX
Why We Downgraded Disney
5 years ago

Mr. Kaplan,

We think Disney is a great company — a truly great one — that has tremendous brand assets and has delivered great value for shareholders for many years. We simply believe that all of these brand assets and future "home run" movies, including Frozen 2, are priced into the stock at its current level.

Thanks for reading and commenting.

In this video: DIS
Top Stock Picks: 2014 In Review
5 years ago

You can learn more by signing up for our free membership at www.newconstructs.com.

In this article: AMGN, ED, ALL, CB, MDT, INTC
Danger Zone: Glu Mobile (GLUU)
5 years ago
Joel: Thanks for your comment. Would you mind sharing what you think GLUU's strengths are and how they do/don't position the company to meet or exceed the expectations for future cash flows embedded in the stock price?
In this article: GLUU, DWA, NFLX, ZNGA
Why Footnotes Matter
5 years ago
Sebright: Good point. The catch is that few investors have the time or expertise to read an annual report. Did you know that 2013 annual reports averaged over 200+ pages?
In this article: AA, ABC, CTL, DVN, ED, HAS, HES, MUR, MWV, RF, SYK, VZ, ZION
1 to 8 of 8 comments

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