I wonder how recessions correlate with these megaphone bear markets? Having lived through 73-75, 00-03 and 07-09 it seemed like the recessions trailed the bear markets. Although in the 07-09 bear the housing downturn lead the 07-09 bear. Some would argue that the great recession following the 07-09 bear is still ongoing, because 45 million Americans are on food stamps and 10's of millions are severely under-employed, not participating in the work-force, or in early retirement.
The current data show that we have already entered a global recession. But no one in Government has admitted that there is any kind of recession at all.
China's PBOC is desperate to prop up the Yuan and it's rapidly slowing economy. Compounding their problem is capital flight of at least 1 Trillion per year, but this is probably vastly under reported. It's gotten crazy, with people strapping cash to their bodies as they leave the country. I wonder what the punishment is for attempting to smuggle cash out of the country? Probably far more severe than I can imagine.
Last BLS jobs number was a total scam, only 3% of new jobs fell in the 25-55 bracket. 97% were minimum wage/part-time jobs in the under 19 or above 55 brackets. Many of these jobs were a holiday surge that will disappear in January. I wonder how they will prop up the totally bogus job numbers next month?
The Fed basing rate raises on this BLS jobs number is insanity. If the Fed continues on this path we will re-enter a recession and job losses will increase. The industrial sector is already in recession bordering on depression in areas like steel, mining and oil producers.
These charts are truly scary. It implies that a 2008 style bear market is certain. The trouble this time is the Fed has fewer resources it can throw at the problem. Are we headed for negative interest rates like Raoul Pal implies (he said.5% 10-year T-bonds by 2017)? I feel like we're living the "Big Short" on steroids.
Great article. Thanks for taking the time to write it and really define what many have felt.
I now understand why Gartman gets time on CNBC to spout his utter nonsense (family).
He is doing a great disservice to any CNBC viewers who act on what he says. They must be broke by now. I don't know how he stays in business? Does CNBC actually pay him for appearances? As he says; "It's nice to be seen".
I know Manhattan is it's own little microcosm, but it definitely has entered bubble territory. Most transactions are cash buyers at outrageous prices. If you walk around the city at night these pricey towers have mostly dark windows. Foreigners have driven the market sky high because they are using Manhattan properties as their own little off-shore banks. They rarely even visit the properties. Even if it is a bubble, the foreign buyers see it as lower risk than keeping their money in their own country in a local bank or financial institution. So far they have been right, as currencies are being devalued around the world. But trying to get their money out may become problematic if multi-million dollar apartments go no-bid. The presumption is that the USD will be the last man standing. But high end real estate as well as very high end art can become illiquid more easily than other assets. You can't pay the bills with real estate or art. And the prices are already so high that even the super rich are beginning to balk at the prices.
My instinct is to stay away from real estate. Home builders could easily get stuck with inventory if they don't build at the right price points in the right locations.
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A Major Bear Market Sign Is Developing
I wonder how recessions correlate with these megaphone bear markets? Having lived through 73-75, 00-03 and 07-09 it seemed like the recessions trailed the bear markets. Although in the 07-09 bear the housing downturn lead the 07-09 bear. Some would argue that the great recession following the 07-09 bear is still ongoing, because 45 million Americans are on food stamps and 10's of millions are severely under-employed, not participating in the work-force, or in early retirement.
The current data show that we have already entered a global recession. But no one in Government has admitted that there is any kind of recession at all.
OECD Gets Brazil Really Wrong; Common Factors With Far More Than Brazil
All the pundits and talking heads are saying emerging markets are out of the woods. I think they are wrong.
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast - February 19, 2016
Good analysis. Saudi Arabia and Russia won't be cutting oil production anytime soon.
China Created More Debt In January Than The GDP Of Norway, Austria Or The UAE
China's PBOC is desperate to prop up the Yuan and it's rapidly slowing economy. Compounding their problem is capital flight of at least 1 Trillion per year, but this is probably vastly under reported. It's gotten crazy, with people strapping cash to their bodies as they leave the country. I wonder what the punishment is for attempting to smuggle cash out of the country? Probably far more severe than I can imagine.
5 Energy Stocks To Buy On Surprise Oil Spike
Horrible advice, some of these companies will go bankrupt.
Continuing Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2009 As Initial Claims Hit 6-Month Highs
Last BLS jobs number was a total scam, only 3% of new jobs fell in the 25-55 bracket. 97% were minimum wage/part-time jobs in the under 19 or above 55 brackets. Many of these jobs were a holiday surge that will disappear in January. I wonder how they will prop up the totally bogus job numbers next month?
The Fed basing rate raises on this BLS jobs number is insanity. If the Fed continues on this path we will re-enter a recession and job losses will increase. The industrial sector is already in recession bordering on depression in areas like steel, mining and oil producers.
3 Charts Every Investor Must See
These charts are truly scary. It implies that a 2008 style bear market is certain. The trouble this time is the Fed has fewer resources it can throw at the problem. Are we headed for negative interest rates like Raoul Pal implies (he said.5% 10-year T-bonds by 2017)? I feel like we're living the "Big Short" on steroids.
Druck is probably right, go all in on gold.
What Did Dennis Gartman Say Today On CNBC ?
Great article. Thanks for taking the time to write it and really define what many have felt.
I now understand why Gartman gets time on CNBC to spout his utter nonsense (family).
He is doing a great disservice to any CNBC viewers who act on what he says. They must be broke by now. I don't know how he stays in business? Does CNBC actually pay him for appearances? As he says; "It's nice to be seen".
How To Survive The Stock Market Meltdown
Glad to see someone pointing out the record levels of margin which equate to higher levels of risk.
The Ishares US Home Construction Reaches A New Level Of Outperformance
I know Manhattan is it's own little microcosm, but it definitely has entered bubble territory. Most transactions are cash buyers at outrageous prices. If you walk around the city at night these pricey towers have mostly dark windows. Foreigners have driven the market sky high because they are using Manhattan properties as their own little off-shore banks. They rarely even visit the properties. Even if it is a bubble, the foreign buyers see it as lower risk than keeping their money in their own country in a local bank or financial institution. So far they have been right, as currencies are being devalued around the world. But trying to get their money out may become problematic if multi-million dollar apartments go no-bid. The presumption is that the USD will be the last man standing. But high end real estate as well as very high end art can become illiquid more easily than other assets. You can't pay the bills with real estate or art. And the prices are already so high that even the super rich are beginning to balk at the prices.
My instinct is to stay away from real estate. Home builders could easily get stuck with inventory if they don't build at the right price points in the right locations.