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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ... more


Latest Posts
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A Global Dearth Of Liquidity
Although y/y money supply growth in the euro zone and Japan is still fairly strong for the moment, the trend is definitely no longer supportive.
Debt, Death, And The US Empire
In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt.
EC The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
In light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year. Powell’s speech was regarded as dovish.
US Stock Market – Re-Coupling With A Panic Cycle?
The market’s decline on Monday was inter alia driven by surprising weakness in AAPL and GS. Sharp breaks in important big cap stocks are happening more and more often lately, which is also a very negative sign for the market’s underlying health.
EC Crumbling Piles Of Sand
The stock market is currently characterized by a high degree of overvaluation, an increasingly hostile monetary policy environment.
Eastern Monetary Drought
The accelerating liquidity drain orchestrated by the Fed is beginning to weigh noticeably on “risk assets”.
Is The Canary In The Gold Mine Coming To Life Again?
While we cannot be sure why investors have suddenly become enamored with the precious metals sector, it is probably a good guess that gold stocks are by now so cheap that they are considered a worthwhile target for rotation purposes.
Bad Hair Days Are Back – Is The Stock Market Oversold Enough?
The fact that the RUT had a very weak close on Friday – closing almost unchanged despite a 2.77% rebound in the NDX – counts as a negative sign for the market.
Are Credit Spreads Still A Leading Indicator For The Stock Market?
Seemingly out of the blue, equities suffered a few bad hair days recently. One should expect corrections in the form of mini-crashes to strike with very little advance warning, due to issues related to market structure and the post-“QE” environment.
Fed Credit And The US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates
All over the world the monetary backdrop continues to become less accommodative, which is bad news for “risk assets” such as stocks and corporate bonds.
How Dangerous Is The Month Of October?
The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.
In Gold We Trust – Incrementum Chart Book 2018
For the moment there is still pressure on gold from a fundamental perspective, as the most important macroeconomic price drivers remain bearish.
US Stocks And Bonds Get Clocked In Tandem
In recent years a popular investment strategy has been built around the negative correlation between stocks and bonds that is in place since 1998.
Decapitation Strike - Elon Musk In The Crosshairs Of The Bureaucracy
While the notion of taking Tesla private was indeed briefly discussed with a representative of a Middle-Eastern investment fund, it never went beyond the stage of “this might be something worth thinking about one day”.
Gold And Gold Stocks – Small Rays Of Light In The Vale Of Tears
A short-term trading opportunity may be at hand in the gold sector – if not now, then probably soon.
US Equities – Approaching An Inflection Point
Since beginning to rise from the lows of the sharp but brief downturn after the late January blow-off high, the US stock market is bereft of uniformity.
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