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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. Please familiarize yourself with our full more
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The Best Labor Market In 21 Years?
Saturday, July 3, 2021 1:10 AM EDT
Jobless claims keep falling. Job cut announcements hit a 21 year low. Rent prices missed pre-pandemic estimates, but they’re coming back quickly.
In this article: SPX
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Unrealistic Stock Return Expectations
Friday, July 2, 2021 9:53 AM EDT
The June ADP report beat estimates and estimates for private sector job creation in the BLS reading. Let’s see if that matters. We expect it to be relevant because all signs point to a solid BLS reading.
In this article: SPX
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Continued Strength Of US Consumer?
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 8:31 PM EDT
The pandemic caused baby boomers to retire a few years earlier than they would have otherwise. Before the pandemic people were working later in life than ever.
In this article: OIL
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Junk Is As Good As Gold
Tuesday, June 29, 2021 9:38 PM EDT
Junk bond yields are at a record low. This doesn’t mean a volatility event is coming soon, but one will come within the next few quarters like they always do.
In this article: JNK, OIL
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No Corrections In 2021?
Tuesday, June 29, 2021 6:15 AM EDT
Recently the S&P 500 has stayed near its record high, while the median stocks hasn’t done as well.
In this article: SPX
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Historical Stock & Bond Returns
Monday, June 28, 2021 5:34 AM EDT
Lumber prices fell sharply. This is a microcosm of the commodity space. Prices can’t rise quickly indefinitely without supply stopping the fun.
In this article: WOOD
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The Consumer Is Ready To Spend
Friday, June 25, 2021 7:16 PM EDT
The supply chain will be normalized in the 2nd half. 75% of the ships waiting off the coast of California are already gone.
In this article: SPX
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The Economy Is Getting Back To Normal?
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 9:43 PM EDT
The TSA checkpoint data shows air travel is almost back to normal. Domestic leisure travel increased significantly. International and business travel aren’t close to normal.
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The Stock Buybacks Are Coming
Tuesday, June 22, 2021 8:26 PM EDT
Buybacks exploded in 2021. Corporations have more money than they need.
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The Factor Rotation Isn’t About The Fed
Monday, June 21, 2021 5:07 PM EDT
There was an intense factor rotation last week based on the prospect of peak economic growth. This allowed investors to buy value stocks on sale that might not even be cyclical.
In this article: ARKK
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Negative Real Junk Bonds
Sunday, June 20, 2021 3:22 AM EDT
Rates are low because of low population growth. Spreads are tight because of the easy Fed policy and the lack of expected risks in the economy. Real high yield debt is negative for the first time ever.
In this article: AMZN, JNK, XRT
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Uncertainty Over The Dot Plot
Thursday, June 17, 2021 2:47 PM EDT
The Fed’s guidance didn’t change, but the market reacted to the dot plot on Wednesday (bonds reversed on Thursday). This dot plot might be a misnomer because many FOMC members reacted to near-term inflation expectations.
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Can The 10 Year Yield Fall Further?
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 11:41 PM EDT
The 10-year yield usually falls after CPI peaks, but this time might be different because it was so obvious CPI would peak in May.
In this article: DBC, IEF
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Inflation Expectations Vary By Age
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 12:24 AM EDT
Older Americans are wearier of inflation than younger ones, but all age groups have raised expectations recently. EPS growth peaked, but that doesn’t mean stocks are about to fall.
In this article: IEF
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There Isn’t Market Euphoria
Monday, June 14, 2021 2:38 PM EDT
There isn’t evidence of euphoria in stocks other than a few retail favorites. This doesn’t mean stocks are immune from a correction.
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This Is The Inflation Peak For Now
Saturday, June 12, 2021 7:33 AM EDT
Markets don’t react to unsustainable temporary results. The market had known for a few months this would be the peak in CPI.
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