Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more

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Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-April
Industrial production continues to rise, while February monthly GDP erased January’s decline.
US-China GDP Growth Since 1981
US growth is pretty hot if trend growth is 2%. Chinese growth is looking pretty lackluster (projected 2024 y/y growth is not matching 5%).
Different Measures Of Consumer Prices
Since 2021M01, the CPI has risen 17.3% (log terms). By comparison, chained CPI and HICP have risen by approximately 16.5%. The PCE deflator has risen only 14.4% by March 2024.
NIIP And Primary Income: Dark Matter +20 Vs. Exorbitant Privilege +40
For many years, the US has been a net debtor to the rest of the world (assets – liabilities < 0), and yet income from the rest of the world has exceeded payments to the rest of the world, consistently since 2007.
The IMF View On U.S. GDP Growth
2024 Q4/Q4 growth is a full 0.7 ppts higher than forecasted in the October 2023 WEO, and 0.6 ppts from the January WEO update.
GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further
The mean forecast for Q1 is exceeded by two of the most recent nowcasts.
GDP Nowcasts - Sunday, April 14
GDPNow and NY Fed close.
Food Inflation Moderates
Food at home prices have risen faster than the CPI overall, both nationwide and in the Midwest. However, the convergence has proceeded faster nationwide (mostly my overall CPI rising faster).
Instantaneous CPI, PCE Deflator, And PPI Inflation In March
Instantaneous core CPI has flattened out, while both core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined.
Inflation Surprise
While y/y core PCE inflation would be decreasing with the pre- and post-CPI release nowcasts, the q/qcore PCE inflation would now be rising instead of stabilizing.
Studies In Sophistry: Rich States, Poor States 17
Today, ALEC released the latest assessment of state-by-state economic outlook and economic performance, authored by Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams.
100 Years Of Recession Prediction Using The Term Spread
Recession probability over the next year is analyzed using a probit regression model based on the 10-year-3-month Treasury spread. The model's performance varies across different periods due to factors like Fed rate policies and capped long rates
Steve Hanke Says The Recession Cometh
With a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year.
Manufacturing’s Progress
Real value added and employment are about 6% higher than when Biden took office. Manufacturing production (which is a gross measure) is only about 2% higher.
Thinking About Trade War II
At the beginning of the Trump Administration, the net exports to GDP ratio was -2.8%; by the end (2020Q4), it was -3.5%.
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Along With Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, And Sahm Rule
This article posts a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology. We can be fairly sure that employment growth is positive.
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