HDFC has bounced up from levels near 2200 for the third straight day, validating Friday’s bullish inside bar candle, daily MACD’s bullish turn, and the RSI’s breach of the falling trendline last week.

The drop confirms the bearish divergence (lower highs) on the 14-day RSI.

Nifty is trading at day’s low of 11,269, having faced rejection at the trendline connecting October 2018 and Feb 2019 lows.

I believe markets are always irrational and by merely following the irrational entity, the Fed is now stuck between the rock and a hard place.

India’s Nifty 50 is trading in the red, but is defending the 50-hour EMA 10,445. The bullish hammer reversal confirmed on Friday indicates scope for a corrective rally toward 10,700-10,800 in the next few days. Buy the dips.

Brent oil is looking south, having witnessed a bear flag breakdown on the hour chart.

Copper has gained 6.3 percent this week and looks set to close above $3.30 (July 2014 high). It would only bolster the bullish technical setup, as indicated by the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.

Note the rejection at 161.8% Fib ext. level of 1.3274. Now we wait for a breakout bullish/bearish of the rising wedge pattern. Looks as if a bearish break is on the cards. That would mark the end of the rally from 1.20 handle.

Bearish price RSI divergence on the daily chart. Sell around 0.7990.

Monthly chart – Watch for a break below or rebound from 1.6190… upside to be capped around 1.75, below 1.6190 would expose 1.5789 Oct 2016 low.

Draghi is trying hard to kill the EUR rally, but it isn’t working… everyone knows taper has already begun for countries like Germany as the ECB has fallen short of the mandatory bond purchases for three months to June.

Nice rounding bottom and a golden crossover: 50-MA & 200-MA on weekly chart.

Don’t be in a hurry to bet on a big move higher in the EUR/USD pair.

The Fed minutes revealed nearly all policymakers favour starting balance sheet shrinking in 2017. The markets are yet again taking this story lightly. The yields should trade higher than where they are…

The 25 basis point rate hike has been priced-in by the markets. That is evident from the fact that the 10-year yield closed at the highest level in two years a couple of days back. Here are the likely scenarios...

Shorts could be initiated at the current levels as the cross is seen falling to 1.3630-1.3550 and possibly to 1.35 (May 2015 low) over the next few weeks. Stops could be placed as per individual risk appetite.