James Hamilton | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California
James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ...more

Articles

Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 148 Posts
1 2 3 ... 10 >>>
Monetary Policy Rates Around The World
Some important charts from around the world.
Does The Fed Deserve Credit For The Disinflation?
On November 14, remarkably, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the CPI had been unchanged in October, whether seasonally adjusted or not. That is, the level of the CPI was unchanged, not the inflation rate, which was zero.
Market Expectations On Fed Funds, Spreads, Inflation Post-CPI Release
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices
Oil prices are down, and futures are in backwardation. Gasoline prices are also (way) down from June peaks.
Not A Recession … Yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter.
Gauging Recessions With The Jobs-Workers Gap
The current labor market conditions remain tight and that they would need to deteriorate strongly in order for the JWGBCI to generate a recession call.
Is This A Recession?
No recession so far, but plenty to worry about.
Miscalculating Potential GDP
As GDP is below potential, more stimulus may help lower unemployment with little cost in terms of inflation.
Why Did U.S. Real GDP Fall?
Not that there aren't plenty of storm clouds to be concerned about, but it would be a mistake to conclude that these concerns have already led to the start of a recession in the U.S..
Oil Sanctions And Recession
After a wild ride up to $130 a barrel, the price of oil has come back down to its level from before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Oil Prices And Inflation
The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. Today I focus on the implications for inflation.
GDP Growth: Is This As Good As It Gets?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter.
The Economic Recovery Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019.
Economy Looks Strong
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.4% annual rate in the first quarter.
Flash-Mob Finance
The mechanics are basically those of a chain letter. The original buyers may make some handsome profits, but only if they sell in time.
Record-Breaking Increase In GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter.
1 to 16 of 148 Posts
1 2 3 ... 10 >>>