Danielle Park, CFA | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Portfolio Manager
Contributor's Links: Juggling Dynamite
Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily ...more

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Easy For Some, Harder For Most
Four months ago, Fed Fund Futures had priced in the expectation of 6 to 8 US rate cuts by the end of 2024. Today, that expectation has retreated to just 40 bps, with a 17% chance of a 25 bp cut in June.
Debt Stress Pandemic
US credit card debt topped $1.34 trillion in February, significantly above the cycle tops of around $900 billion in 2008 and 2020.
Canada And Australia: Two Economies With Similar Challenges
Canadian GDP per capita declined for the 6th consecutive quarter in the final quarter of 2023; this means there are less resources per person–the standard of living is in decline.
Impossible Home Prices Are The Problem
The median Canadian household income of $85k (Dec 2023) now qualifies for a maximum home price of $496k (assuming 20% down, 25-year amortization, and current mortgage rates (5-year fixed).
Spring Market Demanding More Realism
Nationally, the average Canadian home sale price in February 2024 was $719,400, -11.9% from the cycle peak of $816,720 in February 2022.
Bottom Not In
​​​​​​​US commercial real estate prices have declined an average of 33% since early 2020, with a 60% decline in the office sector.
Liquidity Crunch Spreads As Investors Try To Exit
Assets under management in the opaque-high-fee sector exploded globally as lenders loosened credit standards to make more loans.
Reaping What We’ve Sown
Eleven years of near-zero interest rates (2009-2022) drove record debt and consumption, with a manic over-allocation to expensive real estate.
Apartment Defaults Highest In A Decade
Apartment landlords around America are going into default on their mortgages at decade-high rates, suggesting that the Commercial Real Estate Crash is going to get even worse in 2024.
Central Banks Sit Tight As Pain Spreads
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its key interest rate at 5%, the highest since 2007.
Commercial Real Estate Investors Cutting Losses
Interest rates, insurance, taxes, and ongoing maintenance costs are on the rise as occupancy rates decline.
Chinese Capital Retreating From Foreign Realty Markets
Chinese investors who bought properties abroad are facing a double whammy as they contend with an economic slowdown at home and surging interest rates across the globe.
Insolvencies Leaping As Credit Demand Slumps
Business insolvencies are rising globally, and Canada is seeing twice the G7 average.
Mortgage Renewals Driving Shelter Inflation And Slower Economy
Years of easy money and housing speculation have left Canada’s economy between a rock and a hard place.
Inflation Retreating But Shelter Remains The Problem
Canada’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in softer than expected at an annualized rate of 2.9%, down from 3.4% in December and 8.1% from the cycle peak in June 2022.
Bad Loans Mount In ‘Greatest Real Estate Crisis Since The Financial Crisis’
The credit cycle is alive and well. But credit cycles typically move with multi-quarter time lags, and that’s longer than the attention span of most.
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