Earnings season for 2018-Q3 is off to a positive start, and with the S&P 500 now just 2% away from setting new records, investors have shifted a portion of their forward-looking attention away from 2019-Q1 to focus on the current quarter.

At least, that's one interpretation that explains what we're seeing in the alternative futures spaghetti forecast chart for the S&P 500.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Assuming that it is 2018-Q3 that they're focusing upon, it looks like investors are placing about 25% of their attention on 2018-Q3 and about 75% on the more distant future quarter of 2019-Q1 in setting today's stock prices.

The main question for the market going forward is to what extent might the ongoing tit-for-tat tariff wars negatively affect the business outlooks of traditional S&P 500 firms and to what extent might the updated outlooks of the index' biggest tech firms offset that impact.

So the upcoming fourth week of July 2018 could be a week with a lot of market-moving news. Unlike last week, which was pretty uneventful where moving the market was concerned....

Monday, 16 July 2018

• Oil's 4 percent tumble weighs on energy shares; banks rally
• Fed's Kashkari, citing yield curve, wants rate hike pause
• S&P 500 dips as energy shares fall; Netflix tumbles late after results

Tuesday, 17 July 2018

• Oil steadies on U.S. stockpile forecasts, Venezuela worries
• Fed's Powell: Years of strong jobs, low inflation still ahead
• Fed's George sees 'excellent' economy, wants more rate hikes
• Wall St. climbs on Powell comments, earnings

Wednesday, 18 July 2018

• Oil rises on bullish demand signals, even as U.S. stockpiles grow
  • U.S. crude oil output hits 11 million barrels per day for first time ever
• S&P 500 climbs to over five-month high on strong earnings

Thursday, 19 July 2018

• Brent slips as focus returns to oversupply
• Trump criticizes Federal Reserve interest rate policy despite strong economy
• U.S. stocks fall on sour earnings, trade fears

Friday, 20 July 2018

• Oil strengthens as dollar slips to four-day low
• Trump threatens tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese imports
• Wall Street slips as trade worries dampen upbeat earnings