Making The Case To Divest Your China Stock Allocations

If you have any fundamental rationale for investing in China then the following the charts will give you more than pause.

First of all it is widely understood now that the Chinese use a fudged “GDP deflator” to convert estimates of nominal GDP into real, inflation-adjusted terms.  This statistical form of lying about their true growth routinely results in overstating GDP growth. Here for example are some estimates for ‘actual’ (i.e. not emanating from Beijing) Chinese economic output:

GDP Deflator

The other data is at the heart of the micro fundamentals supporting stock prices. As you can see bad loans are piling-up at a pace not seen since their last recession.

china

Despite the underlying broad weakness across the economy, investors are piling into stocks at an astronomical pace which will undoubtedly turn out to be the biggest bust of all time.

China Stock Bubble

One company that epitomizes the mania is that of Hong Kong-listed Jicheng Umbrella Holdings Limited.

This company manufactures and sells plastic umbrellas.

Shares have risen 2,700% since February 13!

Umbrellas

 

Disclosure: None.

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