Last year, investors and analysts fretted over the possibility of a Grexit — Greece leaving the European Union. In the long run, Greece doesn’t provide much to the Eurozone economy, but the ramifications of the move were unknown, and uncertainty is the enemy of rational markets.

So now that United Kingdom is considering leaving the European Union, it looks like we’re starting this whole process all over again. The country isn’t exactly part of the Eurozone, having opted to keep its currency when the EU was formed. But much like Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, the UK hasn’t been the reason the EU economy has struggled so much of late.

The case against

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a great idea for the UK to leave. BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, says a Brexit would be bad news for the UK economy, potentially leading to lower growth and investment, along with higher unemployment and inflation.

BlackRock’s not the only one concerned with a potential “Leave” vote. The Cabinet Office undertook the government’s first official analysis of the consequences of a Brexit, and concluded that it would take ten years for the UK to extricate itself from the European Union, during which time car manufacturing, farming, financial services and the lives of millions of Britons would be negatively affected.

“A vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty,” they concluded.

Why would it take ten years instead of the two stipulated by current treaties? Not only will the country need to go through the process of leaving the EU, but it will also have to set up new trade and similar agreements, while also negotiating new trade deals with other countries.

The case for

Not everyone in the government agrees with this assessment, however. Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, disagrees with the idea that it will take a full decade to negotiate new arrangements.

“There’s a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and Britain will still be part of it after we Vote Leave,” says Grayling. “The real uncertainty is voting to stay in an EU which is already struggling with the euro crisis, the migration crisis, and a youth unemployment crisis. It is safer to take back control and spend our money on our priorities.”

Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, agrees with Grayling’s assessment, adding that the European migration crisis, fueled by unrest in the Middle East, is a far greater threat than the uncertainty surrounding a Brexit. He also dismissed the idea that the country is too small to be able to successfully strike out on its own after decades of being part of the EU.

What does this all mean?

While there are still competing dialogues about the issue, the idea of a Brexit is more uncertain than proponents for a “Leave” vote think. Not only will it take the UK time to transition, but the global economy will also face uncertainty, which will only exacerbate the Britons’ problems at home. In the end, it’s still up in the air whether the UK will make that decision. Even if citizens vote to leave, the government isn’t required to do it. But this will likely be an issue for months to come as analysts opine about the potential ramifications.