Market Briefing For Monday, February 13
This 'transformation era' that we've identified from the election 'get-go', is really more global than appreciated; and despite wide resistance, indeed increasingly is being grasped, whether appreciated or not by other nations.
Friday's 'brohugs' between President Trump and Prime Minister Abe have clear overtones of progress toward improved bilateral understandings, and agreements. The extended telephone call between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Premier XI, regardless of the 'reluctant adoption' of a one-China comment (we'll see how that plays out), was nevertheless what appears to be a diplomatically proper deflection of Chinese angst ahead of the Trumpanomics / Abenomics trading and security (Asian) cornerstone.
The call for 'mutual bilateral leadership' tells you exactly where Asia's strong shared interests are going; and clearly is a challenge to both the Chinese island (and oil mineral subsurface) land grabbing; while North Korea really is put on notice too, by virtue of the mutual White House statements. We don't think Beijing has to worry about this as a 'Tora, Tora, Tora' moment; but they'll not miss the implications (nor have we) of the dynamism of the 'new era'.
This 'transformation' has triggered confusion and misunderstandings both in the public arena (the protesters generally fail to see the national upside to a serious economic revival), and in the economic realm, where leaders often were or are slow to accept the realignment just now beginning, increasingly will grasp the benefits to serious allies; while others won't have to 'eat cake', but will have to reshape or reframe their expectations.
As globalism (good but not when too much of it) contracts, ties and growth, where focused upon, will increase. Prime Minister Abe's 'bullet train' remark (about traveling from New York to Washington in one hour) characterizes at least a part of what we've called for over the past year or more: revival and a 'Renaissance' of the United States; as we (not others) are at the helm of leading the world out of the social and economic abyss that had formed over decades of decline, heavily masked by poorly-focused debt or leverage.
In sum, as the global dialogues between leaders infer (and as equity price advances also make clearer to many), this is a new era and globalists who were (and are) spoiled by not only the increased power it gave them, while diluting the influences of most Western industrial nations, must accept this. I think in a sense the new framework is almost like online marketing; tends to eliminate the middlemen; that's a part of why they're unhappy with Brexit, and try to elicit public outcry based on sympathies average people might be more willing to embrace, like compassion for immigrants and so on. That's partially laudable; but not entirely given how things were done.
At the core, however, this is about economics (follow the money), and both European as well as British and American stocks, have reflected these early stages in a global initiative and a series of transformative global moves to enhance prosperity. Currency stabilization, incentive-based policy initiatives, and the upcoming 'tax' proposals, should all contribute to this.
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Disclosure: None.